10 years in NYC

On Jan 4, 2021, I will be celebrating 10 years of being in NYC, so I guess that makes me a real New Yorker finally. Here is a post on why I moved to this great city. I still vividly remember the day (Jan 4 2011) we landed here on a very cold and windy afternoon. We arrived at JFK with a ton of luggage, two yorkies and there was snow all over the ground and it was in the 30s. Given we were coming from California, we didn’t have the proper attire but we quickly fixed that we a much needed trip to the North Face store in UES.

Thinking back about the past decade for me , family and the startup community, it has been an epic journey. Moving here was the best professional and financial decision that I have made. Both of our children were born in Manhattan, how cool is that for them to say when they get older. We spent seven years in Manhattan and Queens, then moved to the suburbs in New Jersey, have been here for three years now. When we decided to move to NYC, it was a calculated decision as I knew something exciting was brewing in the startup community and I wanted to not only be a part of it but also make a contribution. The growth of the community has been much larger than I anticipated though, I knew it would be big but not this big, what a wonderful surprise. There is a lot of chatter now about what the startup scene will be in NYC and other major tech hubs, given that the pandemic has forced everyone to recognize that we can in fact work remotely and be productive. I remain very bullish on the NYC startup scene, this great city will continue to be magnet for people who thrive in a high pace, high energy environment and are risk takers. The contrarian move right now would be to come here, those are individuals that I would bet on.

Here is some data via NYC HQ’d CB Insights that clearly shows the rapid increase in activity the past 10 years. The first image is amazing, a clear rapid acceleration of deals and dollars. The second image shows an acceleration of median and mean deal sizes. The third image shows which investors were the most active during the stated time periods, it a high quality list of VCs, so of which aren’t based here but are heavily investing in this community (YC, SV Angel, Founder Fund). NEA didn’t have an office here at the time but now have an established team on the ground. General Catalyst had maybe one person on the ground ten years ago if I recall correctly and have since built a team locally.

Startup growth by state and region

Given covid-19, we have been pushed to WFH environment for people in the startup world. The longer we stay in WFH, people are either contemplating about moving or have already moved to other regions. I was interested to comparing various states and regions from today to ten years ago, as a way to think about what region/state might breakout in the next 10 years.

The data below is from Pitchbook. I took a look at companies that are HQ’d in these regions and have raised an aggregate of $1M+ of funding from VCs. I compared two date periods: Jan 1 2009 through Dec 21 2010 and Jan 1 2019 to Dec 5 2020 (today’s date). Here is the data.

I have been living in the NY Metro area now for 10 years, so the NY numbers were not a surprise, almost a 4x growth in 10 years, truly remarkable at the growth but also aggregate, being in the #2 spot overall. Was surprised to see the growth of Chicago / IL region. In terms of the future, I believe that Atlanta has a lot of upside and could catapult to the 5th position. There is a lot of chatter of about Texas and Florida, there are a fair amount of startup people moving there from the Bay Area and NYC, so there certainly is a chance that they could move up quickly. I do wonder if these moves are temporary due to COVID or are permanent. Texas and Florida are a bit challenged as they have a handful of large cities within the state which makes impacts the concentration of talent. If you look at the top regions above , it is usually one large market in a state that has the concentration of talent. In Texas, you have Austin, Dallas, Houston, etc and in Florida, you have Miami, Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville, etc. It will be interesting to see who move up the chart in the next 10 years, who do you think has the best shot, feel free to post your thoughts on twitter or comments section below.

How To Help In Georgia Runoff

Who: you and Jon Ossoff and Reverend Raphael Warnock

What: Runoff for two seats in the U.S. Senate

When: January 5, 2021 is the final day of voting. Last day to register to vote is December 7, 2020. In person voting starts December 14th.

Where: State of Georgia

Why: Two seats are available for the U.S. Senate in the State of Georgia. Democrats are in a position to take control of the Senate

The Senate currently has 50 seats for the Republicans and 48 seats for the Democrats.

To recap the November 3, 2020 election. In Georgia, 5 million people voted out of 7.6 million people who were registered to vote, which was an amazing turnout (66%)!! The put into perspective, the entire state of Georgia has 11 million people and there are still people who haven’t registered to vote as of yet. The goal in the next few weeks is to get more people registered but more importantly, we need to have a great turnout like we had on Nov 3, if you are going to focus on organizations to contribute to, that is where we need the money.

The two candidates for the Democratic party are John Ossoff and Reverend Raphael Warnock, see links below:

There are four organizations that are helping get people registered and/or helping get folks out to vote: Voter Participation Center, BlockPower, The New Georgia Project and Fair Fight, see descriptions and links below. I’m going to contribute to several of these organizations and have already contributed to both candidates. In terms of dollars, I’m going to be contributing more with BlockPower, as they are less well known than the others and there only focus is to increase voter turnout, which is critical for this race. I hope you can donate and/or volunteer for this candidates and/or organizations.

Jon Ossoff (Democrat)

follow: https://twitter.com/ossoff

contribute: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/ms_hp_ossoff?refcode=ms_hp_fr_2019.09.10_x_homepage_x__x__x

volunteer: https://www.mobilize.us/electjon/event/362688/


Reverend Raphael Warnock (Democrat)

follow: https://twitter.com/ReverendWarnock

contribute: https://secure.warnockforgeorgia.com/page/s/website_vol

volunteer: https://warnockforgeorgia.com/take-action/


Voter Participation Center

The Voter Participation Center is a U.S.-based 5013 non-profit organization that seeks to increase voter registration among young people, people of color, and unmarried women, a group it calls “The Rising American Electorate

follow: https://twitter.com/VoterCenter

donate: https://www.voterparticipation.org


BlockPower

BlockPower is a nonprofit focused on increasing voter turnout among Black citizens who don’t vote regularly.

BlockPower pays people in majority-Black neighborhoods to be “Voting Ambassadors” and talk with their friends, family members, and neighbors about the importance of voting.

follow: https://twitter.com/BlockPowerUS

donate: https://blockpower.us/


The New Georgia Project

THE NEW GEORGIA PROJECT IS A NONPARTISAN EFFORT TO REGISTER AND CIVICALLY ENGAGE GEORGIANS.

follow: https://twitter.com/NewGAProject

donate: https://newgeorgiaproject.org/

Fair Fight

We promote fair elections in Georgia and around the country, encourage voter participation in elections, and educate voters about elections and their voting rights. Fair Fight brings awareness to the public on election reform, advocates for election reform at all levels, and engages in other voter education programs and communications

follow: https://twitter.com/fairfightaction

donate: https://fairfight.com/

Reminder of the Nov 3 election, as of now, the state has flipped from red to blue!!

VC SPACs

2020 has been the year of SPACs led by Venture Capitalists (VC) firms and individuals. Some people have compared SPACs to ICOs, in terms of hype and also potential outcome (ICOs flared up with a lot of drama and gov’t scrutiny). I believe SPACs can play an important avenue for specific companies, typically those that are more capital intensive and take a while to get to maturity. From a retail perspective, it provides an opportunity for investor to get access to technology companies that still have a lot of upside. I’m bullish on SPACs that are led by established technology focused VCs who have a track record of returning capital to their existing investors in established venture funds.

Here are the active SPACs in market today, including the amount of it:

VC firm led SPACs

Ribbit Capital $350M – https://www.renaissancecapital.com/Profile/LEAP.U/Ribbit-LEAP/IPO

FirstMark Capital $360M – https://www.renaissancecapital.com/Profile/FMAC.U/FirstMark-Horizon/IPO

Lux Capital $300M – https://www.renaissancecapital.com/Profile/LUXAU/Lux-Health-Tech-Acq/IPO

General Catalyst $500M – https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/72692/Health-technology-SPAC-Health-Assurance-Acquisition-files-for-a-$500-millio

Social Capital – 5 SPACs for a total of $3.2B+ – https://www.renaissancecapital.com/Profile/IPOF.U/Social-Capital-VI/IPO

Altimeter $450M – https://www.renaissancecapital.com/Profile/AGCUU/Altimeter-Growth-Corp/IPO

Dragoneer $600M – https://www.renaissancecapital.com/Profile/DGNR.U/Dragoneer-Growth-Opp/IPO

Individual VCs (but not their firms) SPACs

Reid Hoffman (of Greylock) $600M – https://www.renaissancecapital.com/Profile/RTP.U/Reinvent-Tech-Partners/IPO

Bradley Tusk (of Tusk Ventures) $300M – https://www.renaissancecapital.com/Profile/IGACU/IG-Acquisition/IPO

I know of several other VC led SPACs coming online. More to come for sure.

Relative to all the SPACs that have been raised this year and previous years (see below), the number and total value of VC related SPACs is tiny percentage. Image is via https://www.spacresearch.com/

Insights from the SOHN Conference

I attended the virtual SOHN Conference, which was focused on the healthcare space, there were 200+ people in attendance. Having seen this tweet by Josh Wolfe at Lux, one of the event organizers, I was intrigued with the lineup below. Typically these virtual conferences don’t have a cost or very minimal cost but this was an exception as they were raising money for a an important cause: “All proceeds of the September 23rd gathering will support Rockefeller University’s Dr. Michel Nussenzweig, who is developing a novel therapy for COVID-19”

I was hoping to see the battle royal between Keith Rabois of Founders Fund and Zach Weinberg of Flatiron Health, those who are on twitter too much would get the context 🙂

The battle didn’t materialize as they did separate fireside conversations with Josh, but I did find the talks interesting and gleaned some tidbits from it.

Zach, Co-Founded Flatiron Health, which was a massive $2B+ exit and many of us in NYC tech scene are proud of, he is also an active early stage investor. Zach indicated will spend the next 10 years of his career in healthcare. On the investment front, he indicated 30%-40% of his angel investments are in healthcare but that he is sector agnostic, he just wants to fund the best Founders out there. Josh asked Zach about what trends he is seeing with Founders that he is backing, which he answered, that Founders are carrying the traits of having both technical and business skills now (called them athletes who stretch up and down), something that was less seen in the past. Zach did address the beef with Keith, made his point that randomization is critical in healthcare trials but not critical in the software business (A/B testing/optimization), so that is likely the driver of the disagreement between the two. His perspective is that covid cases will spike this fall/winter 😦 . Lastly, during the opening remarks of the fireside chat between the two of them, Josh acknowledged that he passed on the investment opportunity in Flatiron Health and that is was a big miss for him. Josh had a hard time getting comfortable with a team that has a background in advertising/media (Founding Invite Media) jumping over to healthcare, oops 🙂

Josh had a conversation with Keith Rabois, who has a deep background in operating companies, being a Founder and Investor. Keith helped form Opendoor, which just went through a SPAC, but there wasn’t time to elaborate on that event. One of the topics they discussed is distributed teams who are working from home due to Covid, both indicated that teams that are able to get together in close physical proximity will have an advantage over teams that fully distributed. Josh asked him about being wrong or missing things, Keith did indicate that he had an opportunity to invest at the Seed and Series A round in Airtable and that it was a huge miss for him. Keith also declared that he is the most active lead investor in venture over the past seven years.

Josh also spoke with Bob Nelson of ARCH Ventures Partners. Bob is one of the most successful VCs out there and recently had a massive $8B+ exit in his portfolio. Bob also believes the covid cases will spike this fall/winter but is confident that there will be effective therapeutics available by year end. He invests in really far out ideas but one area that he is currently focused on is the supply chain and manufacturing in the life science sector. I’m not too familiar with that sector but that is an area I would be interested in hearing more about from Bob, but there wasn’t enough time to dig into that during the chat.

There were more tidbits shared, but these are some of the points that stood out to me. It was great to hear from all of them as they have great insights on the market and hopefully a lot of money was raised for Rockefeller University’s Dr. Michel Nussenzweig, who is developing a novel therapy for COVID-19.

Defund Police / Abolish Police ?

After the killing of George Floyd by the Minneapolis Police, there have been protests all over the world. One of the themes coming out of these decentralized protests, is a call to action to defund the police and/or abolish the police.

For many, the words “abolish the police” is jarring as they might tie that to the demands of anarchists and it seems like a very extreme perspective, I can understand that.

For those who believe defunding the police and/or abolishing the police is an extreme view, this post is written to connect with you, please keep an open mind and continue to read. I will not give you the answers to these questions below , but I ask you to do the work and look up the answers, as I believe they are informative. My purpose isn’t to change your mind but to have your explore these questions with an open mind.

I used to believe that defunding the police or abolishing the police was an extreme view but I have slowly changed my mind. When I was younger, I was in favor the California “Three Strikes You Are Out” bill. I also voted for laws the provided more funding for the police and laws that provided funding for new prisons. It has taken years for me to get to my current perspective, it was through conversations, listening and visiting a prison, that enabled a change of view.

Here are some questions that are worth exploring, the answers are available via online research and provide insights on my position.

Who created the police?

When was the police created?

What is the purpose of the police?

What the is breakdown of the race of the people that are being arrested?

What are the offenses of the people who were arrested?

What is the breakdown of the races that are in jail?

What are the offenses of those that are in jail?

How many rape kits have not been tested by the police?

How much money is spent every year on the police?

What training do the police receive and are they trained to handle mental health causes, domestic disputes, those that are acting suicidal, deescalation tactics?

How many hours of training is needed to be a police officer? and how does that compare to other industries where people are licensed? (barbers, beauticians, architects, electricians, etc.)

Has crime gone down/up in this country? What is the trajectory?

Who monitors the police? Why do you think it is set up that way?

Have police been reprimanded for breaking any laws? If so, to what extent?

Please visit this Twitter thread as well. Thank you for reaching this far.

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

New June

Over several days in June 1-5 2020, several significant events occurred for our Democracy, I can’t recall a week in my lifetime where many positive events took place in a short amount of time. While we are taking some steps forward, there is a long way to go still.

It’s worth noting that the month of June is celebrated by many as this is when Juneteenth takes place , which commemorates the ending of slavery.

The events:

Steve King, who has long been considered to be one of the most racist politicians, has lost his seat in the state of Iowa, a key battleground state for the election of the US Presidency.

Ella Jones, was elected the Mayor of Ferguson Missouri. She is the first woman and first black person to be elected the mayor of that city. Ferguson is known as the location of the murder of Michael Brown, by the hand of police. Major protests ensued following the killing and Ms. Jones winning the seat is directly connected to those protests.

The Governor of Virginia, Ralph Northam, announced the removal of iconic Richmond statue of Confederate Gen. Robert E. Lee. As you are aware, the Confederate army lost the civil war , as they wanted to maintain the horrific status quo of enslaving black people in the United States of America.

The remaining three policemen who were complicit in the lynching of George Floyd were charged for their cowardly act.

Americans and people all over the world (Paris/Berlin/Amsterdam/etc), took to the streets and protested in unison, the killing of George Floyd and institutionalized behavior of police brutality.

James Mattis publicly spoke out against the President

The Mayor is Washington D.C. put up a Black Lives Matter sign and street name next to the White House

We have momentum, lets keep this going. Register. Vote. Protest. Donate. Volunteer.

Consider joining me in donating to these organizations:

https://colorofchange.org/

https://www.joincampaignzero.org/

Plaid, the non-obvious unicorn

If you follow the fintech/VC scene, there was a huge exit announced yesterday evening, Plaid was purchased for $5.3B by Visa.  There are some really interesting facts about Plaid that should be pointed out.

The Founders, Zach Perret and William Hockey, didn’t go to Stanford/Harvard/MIT/etc or worked at Facebook/Google/etc.  People love to do pattern recognition when picking Founders, but the Founders went to Duke/Emory and were consultants at Bain, great places but not what many VCs consider “top tier”.   If you talk to folks in the Bay Area, consultants is like a four letter word, eeck.

They only have 450 employees.  Much of the headcount was added over the past two years, see below.  You don’t need to have bloated company to create enterprise value, more isn’t better.

4645901803716608

When the Founders started the company in 2013, fintech was NOT a hot sector, see funding history below.  The fintech startups that were considered “hot”, were mainly consumer facing, not those that were B2B and working with banks, which is what Plaid does.

6563522962784256

It was great to see Spark Capital, the first firm to lead a round in the company, give recognition to their departed colleagues, Mo Koyfman and David Haber.  You don’t always see firms doing this.

Kudos to the early investors for making a contrarian bet and returning a lot of money to their LPs.  Per Pitchbook:

“The company raised $2.8 million of Seed funding led by Spark Capital on July 31, 2013, putting the company’s pre-money valuation at $10 million. Amit Avner, Benjamin Cirlin, David Tisch, Nat Turner, Spark Capital, Google Ventures, New Enterprise Associates, Felicis Ventures, Homebrew Capital, Box Group and Zachary Weinberg also participated in the round.”

I don’t know the Founders, but folks say a lot of great things about them and while I take Glassdoor ranking with grain of salt, the employee feedback has been very positive, maybe you don’t have to be an @$$hole to be successful.

The success of Plaid is a boom for the fintech startup scene, which has been yearning for some exits, I expect to see more large exits in this space in 2020.

Side note, I had Plaid speak at a fintech conference I hosted in 2015 in NYC, the lineup was pretty killer IMHO

Fast Fashion, all in on SHEIN

I’m not the most knowledgeable person regarding fast fashion, it helps to be married , as I get to get a peak on some brands that are new to me but might be well known to some already.

H&M is really that only fast fashion brand that I’ve personally shopped at,  I’ve gotten a a bunch of items at their physical retail shops and have been pleased with the quality relative to the their price points.  They always have new products and I feel “cool” shopping there, makes me a little more hip..I think 🙂  As a side bar, the only clothing I buy online are Cole Haan shoes, Nike shoes and Bonobos.  I have yet to get into a fast fashion site…

On the women’s side, there seems to be a lot more happening, which makes sense, given most women are more into fashion than the typical male.  Fashion Nova is one that many folks know about, but I only became aware of them earlier in 2019, given my wife has gotten some pieces there and also helps the Cardi B is reppin them as well, she has her own collection there.   My Wife also bought some items for me, I wasn’t aware they have a men’s line but they do but the focus of the company seems to be on women.

The newest brand that I’ve come across is SHEIN (again, thanks to my Wife), which is known for women’s clothing but they have men’s & kids clothing as well.  I took a look at their mobile app and it well done and bought something on there to understand the flow of the app, user experience, notification and delivery.  I’ve also looked in the company a bit more, in terms of where they are based on who owns them.  They are based in China , although the CEO , Chris Xu, seems to be based in the UK.  Company was started in 2008 and did a Series A round in 2015, led by IDG Capital and Jafco, I think both investors are going to do really well on this company.    Thanks to data from Pitchbook, they have a “signals” area on company profiles, see below, I think that I’m on the right track here:

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From a user experience, the mobile experience is well done, in terms of search and size filtering.  The order flow is great, love that they integrate with Apple Pay, which is my favorite and fastest method to purchase items.   Side note, the Nike SNKRS app was the first time I used Apple Pay to pay for something on an app, super slick.  One of my favorite items with the SHEIN app is the tracking of your purchases, it is integrated into the app.  Typically, when you want to track a shipment, it hyperlinks you to another site such at UPS, to see where the product is, that isn’t the case here, see screenshot of an example, very granular.

shein

 

If you are developing a mobile shopping product , you should definitely check out SHEIN for ideas.

I’m long fast fashion, I’m long SHEIN, I’m long Apple Pay and long mobile shopping apps. (This is more figurative than literal, as I don’t own shares in any SHEIN)

 

Peloton Social $PTON

If you follow me on Twitter, you know that I’m a big fan of Peloton and share screenshots after my rides and give a shout out to the instructors as well.

 

I’m also a big fan as they are NYC based and I’m a huge cheerleader for what is happening in the local tech community and their IPO in 2019 was a major milestone.  BTW, stock is trading really well right now and at a $8B+ market cap $PTON

pton

The one area where Peloton could generate more value and customer lock-in is via social.

First, lets discuss customer lock-in.  Peloton is facing competition from legacy players, who also want to put a tablet on a stationary bike, I mean, how hard can that be?  “tablet on a bike” is how many Peloton doubters would describe the company and in some ways they are right.  However, they have a few things going for them that is creating a bit of customer lock-in.  They have done a good job on gamification, in term of badges, primarily on milestone rides, such as your 50th or 100th ride.  Many hard core Peloton fans, will actually fly to NYC, just to take their milestone ride in person at the Peloton studio and the instruction will give them a public shout out to the rider for the milestone ride.  This goes a long way for riders and provide some lock-in as you are going to lose your milestone badges if you hop to one of their competitors.  Another lock-in for now, is the specific instructors that have a big following, it is sticky for many riders as they are loyal to that instructor.  I say for lock-in for now in that instructors could jump to a Peloton competitor but we haven’t seen that as of yet, from I understand the high profile instructors have some financial incentives built in to stay a Peloton.   Anyhow, the milestone badges and instructors have created some lock-in.

The other area where lock-in could be created and might be the most sticky is social.  As of now social has been a major afterthought for Peloton, at least that is how I feel as customer, I don’t know their roadmap.   The social aspect is very basic, there is the ability to follow people and for others to follow you.  You can look people up their Peloton username but the interface is clunky and searching by name doesn’t provide good results.  The upside of following or having followers is that if you are taking a Peloton class, you can see who else is in the class with you but the odds of that happening is pretty slim as people I know live in different timezone and I’m almost never riding at the same time as someone I know.  Perhaps if I followed more people, the chances of serendipity would increase but again, adding people to follow isn’t that easy.  If I’m riding at the same time as someone I know, we can do a virtual high five, that really is the only interesting thing about the social component of Peloton as of now.

However, I believe Peloton can unlock several billion dollars of value and create higher customer lock-in by really focusing on some social components that are non-existent as of now.    Peloton users love talking about how they have a bike and also discuss specific instructors they like, it is a really a great conversation topic if you know someone that has one, there is a lot of passion around that.  The question is how you take the real world discussion and passion and put it online.  The opportunity is massive, no one has created a massive social network around working out, there are folks who have tried such as Fitocracy, Runkeeper and MapyMyFitness to name a few; they had some level of success but not at a massive scale.   I believe Peloton riders would want to get together IRL (in real life), so a geo based network is possible.  The riders could be single people, who want to find someone to date that is like minded, is into fitness and as mentioned earlier, Peloton is a real conversation starter.  As a Dad in the suburbs, I can see meeting other Dads who are into Peloton, same would go for Moms I believe.  Even if I don’t connect IRL with other Dads in the my local community, I do want to compete with them on rides, so a leaderboard for Dads in my town would be something that I would sign up for , I love competition and so do others.  I also want to be able to create a leaderboard around age, I’m 41 years old and want to see other people who are a similar age and see how hard they are working out, it’s a motivation #DadBod 🙂   There could be a benefit to Peloton for a geo based social network, as an example, if there is critical mass in a particular region/town of people are really engaged socially on Peloton, they could decide to put a studio in town, as their is a social element to sweating together with a friend IRL.

Now, I do want to acknowledge that adding social elements, is opening a can of worms around privacy (age, location, gender, etc) and could result in bad behavior by the company and its customers, see Facebook as an example.  Perhaps Peloton doesn’t want to open that can of worms, it could be a dilemma for them, I don’t know.

There is a massive financial opportunity for Peloton and benefit to their customers, if they do carefully unleash some interesting social features.  Long $PTON.